(16 Jul 2021) An analyst monitoring the situation in the war stricken Tigray region has warned the way forward may be "very volatile" despite a current ceasefire declared by Ethiopia's government.
Tigray leaders have waged a guerrilla war since November after a political falling out with the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who had sidelined them from influential roles in Ethiopia's government and military.
Towards the end of June Ethiopia's government declared an immediate, unilateral cease-fire after nearly eight months of deadly conflict as Tigray fighters occupied the regional capital and government soldiers retreated in a region where hundreds of thousands were suffering in the world's worst famine crisis.
Will Davison, a senior Ethiopia analyst with the International Crisis Group, said leaders in Tigray would not be able to accept the ceasefire as there were still areas of Tigray not under their control.
"In terms of the way forward, the situation is dynamic and very volatile," he said.
"From the perspective of Tigray's leadership accepting that ceasefire would mean accepting the Amhara region control of parts of Tigray in the south and west that they took during the first few weeks of this war and that is not something which Tigray's leadership is willing to accept."
Thousands of residents in the regional capital Mekele celebrated the arrival of Tigray Defence Forces fighters on 29 June, having spent months living in fear under occupation by soldiers from Ethiopia and neighbouring Eritrea.
The TDF troops moved in after the government and Eritrean soldiers withdrew and the federal government declared the ceasefire.
Davison said it was "very hard to see political reconciliation" in the region.
"The trajectory that we have at the moment is very worrying both for the people of Tigray but also for Ethiopia's border stability," he said.
He called on the Ethiopian government to "reset and rethink" and find a way to negotiate with Tigray's leadership.
While the Tigray forces now control large areas, the region has remained largely cut off from the world, with transport and communications links severed or blocked.
After months of looting and destruction that witnesses have blamed on Ethiopian and Eritrean forces, the United Nations is still highly concerned about the fate of millions of civilians as food runs short amid famine conditions.
Davison said despite the ceasefire there were still issues in getting aid to people in the region.
Ethiopia’s government has accused humanitarian aid groups working in its war-hit Tigray region of “arming” Tigray fighters and threatened to halt some groups’ operations there.
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