THEY are about to make inflation MUCH Worse!
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The latest figures emerging from the US, UK, and Europe show our major economies reporting spiralling levels of inflation not seen for an entire generation
As it stands, the US has just recorded a 7.5% YOY increase in the cost of living (based on the Consumer Price Index – CPI) – the highest YOY increase since February 1982 when a 7.6% increase was recorded. But we know the true figure is closer to 15% when calculated using the old CPI metrics from the 1980’s
The UK has just recorded its highest annual inflation rise in 30 years with a 5.5% YOY increase in January – the highest increase since 1992 – and I believe the UK could hit 8-10% in the coming months as the country braces itself for a 54% increase in energy costs alone, that’s not even counting any of the other inflationary inputs - that’s just energy
1. History:
Given that inflation is now at its highest point in a generation, how far does the currency in your pocket compared to the past:
$1 in 2012 is worth just $0.82 today. That’s a 18% loss
$1 in 2002 is worth just $0.64 today. That’s a 36% loss
$1 in 1992 is worth just $0.50 today. That’s a 50% loss
$1 in 1982 is worth just $0.34 today. That’s a 66% loss
$1 in 1972 is worth just $0.15 today. That’s a 85% loss
$1 in 1962 is worth just $0.11 today. That’s a 89% loss
$1 in 1952 is worth just $0.09 today. That’s a 91% loss
Housing:
The average monthly rent in the US in 1982 was $292 ($850 in today’s money), but renters are currently paying on average $1,104 per month (30% higher)
For homeowners, the average US home in 1982 cost $69,000 ($201,000 in today’s money), but the average house price today is more than $408,000 (103% rise)
In the UK, a home in 1992 cost £55,000 (£122,000 in today’s money), but in reality, an average home today will set you back £274,000 (125% increase)
And in the UK, the average monthly rent in 1992 was just £150 (£332 in today’s money), but the real average monthly rental cost in the UK today is a whopping £1,064 (220% increase!)
Energy:
US home energy costs remained the top driver of inflation last year in 2021, rising 30% from 2020. And, with increased demand over the winter months, I’m expecting at least 50% higher bills for consumers this year
In the UK, the new price cap on energy will rise by 54% this coming April. Those on default tariffs will see an average increase of £693 a year, while those on prepayment meters will see a typical increase of up to £2,017
Housing:
In the US, the increase in cost for providing shelter in 2022 is expected to far exceed wage increases yet again
The cost of renting a home in the US is also expected to rise in 2022 by 7-10%, taking the average monthly rental amount from $1,100 to $1,200. In contrast, US wages are set to increase by just 3.4% in 2022
In the UK, rents are now rising at the fastest rate on record. Data released at the end of January showed that the average rent prices outside of London are 10% higher than they were a year ago & London rents have hit a new record. The average rent outside London is £1,068 a calendar month, according to Rightmove. In London it’s £2,142
Food:
According to official figures, US food prices are estimated to rise an overall 5% in 2022
US shoppers expect to spend an average of $611 per month on groceries next year, an increase of about $79, or nearly 15%, over their projected food budgets for 2021 which were already elevated
How worse off are we expected to be this year based on these 3 metrics?
Estimates on this are difficult to quantify, however, my research indicates that the average American household could be between $2,100 and $5,400 worse off this year
For the UK, I expect the average household could be anywhere between £2,500 to £4,000 worse off in 2022 than they were in 2021
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